NoCo SD Market Conditions Category

Market Update | Prices Slip, Still Up Year-Over-Year

posted on September 13th, 2017 | filed under: Buying Strategies, Market Update, NoCo SD Market Conditions, Uncategorized

After reaching an all-time record high in July at $610,000, the median price for single-family, resale homes in San Diego County drifted downwards in August.

Nevertheless, the median price was up 9% year-over-year. That’s sixty-three months in a row the median price has been higher than the year before.

The median price for condominiums also slipped the past two months after reaching a new all-time high in June. And, as with single-family, homes, the median price was up 6.7% year-over-year, again, that’s sixty-three months it has been higher than the year before.

Home sales, meanwhile, were down 4.5% from last August. Year-to-date, home sales are off 4.3%. Condo sales were down 9.3% but are up 5.2% year-to-date. Read the rest of this entry »

posted by Jeff DeChamplain // Leave A Comment

Market Update | Real Estate’s New Normal

posted on April 18th, 2017 | filed under: Buying Strategies, Market Update, NoCo SD Market Conditions, Uncategorized

Once upon a time, in a market far, far away, the National Association of REALTORS® decreed that six months of inventory indicated a “balanced” market. This was for the national market. In regional markets, your mileage would vary.

In San Diego, our mileage varied. A “balanced” market here was one-hundred and forty-two days of inventory from January 2000 through December 2006. That was a period of normalcy for the county.

Those days are long gone. During the Great Recession of 2007 through 2011, inventory levels spiked as sales plummeted and foreclosures jumped. Days of Inventory then averaged two-hundred and eleven.

Beginning in 2012, sales rose to normal levels, but inventory went down the drain.

There are three main reasons for the lack of inventory over the past five years, all of which seem intractable.

First, baby boomers aren’t moving. According to an AARP survey, 87% of baby boomers over the age of 65 want to stay in their homes. The main reason is to be near family and friends. Another reason is to avoid excess capital taxes. Selling a principal residence allows for either a $250K shield if single, or a $500K shield if married. Any gains over those amounts are taxed as capital gains. There are some ways around this, most of which involve setting up trusts. That is something you would need to discuss with your tax attorney and/or accountant.

Second, a significant number of the homes that were foreclosed on were bought by hedge funds and big private-equity groups who bought in bulk from the banks. Then, rather than flipping the homes, they rented them out to the families who had been foreclosed upon.

Frank Nothaft an economist with Corelogic, says in 2006 there were nine million single family houses in in the rental stock.  That number increased by three million in the following seven years, he said. Read the rest of this entry »

posted by Jeff DeChamplain // Leave A Comment

Market Update | Condo Prices Set New Highs in February

posted on March 21st, 2017 | filed under: Buying Strategies, Market Update, NoCo SD Market Conditions, Uncategorized

Both the median and average prices for condos set new all-time highs in February. It was also the fifty-seventh month in a row the median price has been higher than the year before. The median price for single-family, re-sale homes was higher, year-over-year, for the fifty-seventh month in a row. Home sales eked out 0.5% gain compared to last February. Condo sales, on the other hand, were just over one-third the monthly average since January 2001. The inventory of actively listed single-family, re-sales homes in San Diego County continues to define the market. There were 3,587 homes for sale as of March 10th. The average number of homes for sale each month since January 2001 is almost 8,582. Days of Inventory, or how long it would take to sell all the homes on the market at the current rate of sales is sixty days. The average in San Diego County 146 days.

The sales price to list price ratio jumped to its highest level since last July: 98.2%.

New Housing Law for Teachers as we wrote about several months ago, the inability of people who serve the community to afford to live here has a deleterious effect on the community. Last fall, Governor Brown signed the “Teacher Housing Act of 2016” to make it easier for school districts to provide affordable housing for their employees. Authored by Mark Leno, the former Democratic state senator from San Francisco, the law gives districts explicit permission to set aside housing exclusively for its employees and, crucially, to take advantage of state and federal tax credits to develop these projects. Under prior law, projects that make use of these low-income housing subsidies had to be open to all tenants who met the income guidelines, to prevent public funds from subsidizing housing discrimination. The new law makes an exception for teachers and district employees.

Read the rest of this entry »

posted by Jeff DeChamplain // Leave A Comment

Market Update | Prices & Sales Up in 2016

posted on January 23rd, 2017 | filed under: Buying Strategies, Market Update, NoCo SD Market Conditions, Uncategorized

The median price for single-family homes in San Diego County rose 5.4% in 2016 compared to 2015. This is the fifth year in a row the median price for homes was higher than the year before.

The median price for condos/townhomes rose 8.3% from 2015, again, the fifth year in a row of higher prices.

Single-family home sales gained 0.7% year-over-year. Condo/townhome sales were up 0.3%.

Days of Inventory were at their lowest since before 2008, which means the pressure on pricing will continue.

NEW FHA LOAN LIMITS FOR 2016

The Federal Housing Finance Agency has released the conforming loan limits change for 2017. This change resulted in higher loan limits beginning in January for many counties across the country.

The Federal Housing Administration is insuring loans for people looking to purchase a home or refinance a home with a little equity. The program insures loans up to the maximum loan limit in the county in which the property is located.

The maximum loan limit in San Diego County is rising to 612,950 for 2017. This represents a significant change for people looking to purchase a home who have good income, sufficient credit, and a healthy debt-to-income ratio who are otherwise tight on cash to close. This change represents bigger borrowing power in nearly every county across the United States.

Read the rest of this entry »

posted by Jeff DeChamplain // Leave A Comment

Market Update | Prices & Sales Continue Rising

posted on January 6th, 2017 | filed under: Buying Strategies, Market Update, NoCo SD Market Conditions, Uncategorized

1-6-17Prices of both homes and condos were up in November.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes and condos was higher than the year before for the fifty-fourth month in a row.

Home sales were up for the fourth month in a row and are up 1.9% year-to-date.

Inventory, or the lack thereof, is keeping prices up. In November, there were only 4,494 active home listings. The average since January 2001 is 8,660.

With NIMBYism rampant in San Diego County, witness the voting down of the Lilac Hills project, which would have built 1,746 new homes in Valley Center, the outlook for new construction is grim.

NOVEMBER SALES STATISTICS

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

Year-Over-Year

• Median home prices increased by 4.8% year-over-year to $549,700 from $524,750.

• The average home sales price rose by 3.8% year-over-year to $699,552 from $674,046.

• Home sales rose by 21.8% year-over-year to 1,876 from 1,540.

• Total inventory_ fell 8.5% year-over-year to 7,345 from 8,025. • Sales price vs. list price ratio rose by 0.1% year-over-year to 97.9% from 97.8%.

• The average days on market fell by 8.1% year-over-year to 41 from 45.

Read the rest of this entry »

posted by Jeff DeChamplain // Leave A Comment

Market Update | C.A.R.’s 2017 California Housing Market Forecast

posted on December 8th, 2016 | filed under: Buying Strategies, Market Update, NoCo SD Market Conditions, Uncategorized

trends-at-a-glance-nov-2016Following a dip in home sales in 2016, California’s housing market will post a nominal increase in 2017, as supply shortages and affordability constraints hamper market activity, according to the “2017 California Housing Market Forecast,” released today by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ®’ (C.A.R.) .

The C.A.R. forecast sees a modest increase in existing home sales of 1.4 percent next year to reach 413,000 units, up slightly from the projected 2016 sales figure of 407,300 homes sold. Sales in 2016 also will be virtually flat at 407,300 existing, single-family home sales, compared with the 408,800 pace of homes sold in 2015.

“Next year, California’s housing market will be driven by tight housing supplies and the lowest housing affordability in six years,” said C.A.R. President Pat “Ziggy” Zicarelli. “The market will experience regional differences, with more affordable areas, such as the Inland Empire and Central Valley, outperforming the urban coastal centers, where high home prices and a limited availability of homes on the market will hamper sales. As a result, the Southern California and Central Valley regions will see moderate sales increases, while the San Francisco Bay Area will experience a decline as home buyers migrate to peripheral cities with more affordable options.”

C.A.R.’s forecast projects growth in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product of 2.2 percent in 2017, after a projected gain of 1.5 percent in 2016. With California’s nonfarm job growth at 1.6 percent, down from a projected 2.3 percent in 2016, the state’s unemployment rate will reach 5.3 percent in 2017, compared with 5.5 percent in 2016 and 6.2 percent in 2015.

The average for 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rates will rise only slightly to 4.0 percent in 2017, up from 3.6 percent in 2016, but will still remain at historically low levels.

The California median home price is forecast to increase 4.3 percent to $525,600 in 2017, following a projected 6.2 percent increase in 2016 to $503,900, representing the slowest rate of price appreciation in six years.

“With the California economy continuing to outperform the nation, the demand for housing will remain robust even with supply and affordability constraints still very much in evidence. The net result will be California’s housing market posting a modest increase in 2017,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “The underlying fundamentals continue to support overall home sales growth, but headwinds, such as global economic uncertainty and deteriorating housing affordability, will temper stronger sales activity.”

Read the rest of this entry »

posted by Jeff DeChamplain // Leave A Comment

Market Update | Granny Flat Restrictions Eased

posted on October 21st, 2016 | filed under: Buying Strategies, Market Update, NoCo SD Market Conditions, Uncategorized

trends-at-a-glance-oct-2016Granny Flat Restrictions Eased

Lawmakers in Sacramento have reduced the regulations on adding “granny flats”.

Granny flats, so-called because they were originally intended to house elderly parents, were beset by many local regulations that increased their cost.

The new legislation, which goes into effect in January, reduces and/or eliminates many of the restrictions put in place by local governments.

The intent of the law is to add more units to the housing stock.

The legislation says that as long as the granny flat meets current zoning guidelines, the homeowners can avoid having to get a conditional use permit.

Local agencies would be blocked from charging connection fees for the granny flats for water and sewer service. Other requirements, such as adding fire sprinklers for small accessory dwelling units even if the primary residence doesn’t need them, are eliminated under the legislation.

Anthony Andaya, president of the Pacific Southwest Association of Realtors, said granny flats allow for extra rent cash to offset the rising price of homes.

“This allows homeowners to get a little more income out of their properties, which is nice for owners to counteract some of their larger costs right now,” he said.

Lack of inventory and new home building has contributed to the recent run-up in home prices.

This is a step in the right direction, but as Steve Russell, executive director of the San Diego Housing Federations said, “It’s a modest step. Anything that contributes to housing supply is part of the solution … it’s a big drop in the bucket but it’s still just a drop in the bucket.”

Read the rest of this entry »

posted by Jeff DeChamplain // Leave A Comment

Market Update | Scammers Posing as Your Real Estate Agent

posted on July 26th, 2016 | filed under: Buying Strategies, Market Update, NoCo SD Market Conditions, Uncategorized

trends-at-a-glance-sep-2016Scammers Posing as Your Real Estate Agent

Wanted to share with you this great article from Money Magazine.

There’s a scam afoot, or, shall we say, a-wire that prospective homebuyers may want to be on the lookout for, and it happens like this: You’re nosing around the real estate market — maybe even close to buying a house or piece of property. And then you get a message from your real estate agent urging you to wire money to secure the deal.

As you might have guessed, a scammer is spoofing your real estate agent’s account and is waiting for your money.

How a Scammer Finds Their Target

Hackers snatch passwords when people log into free Wi-Fi networks or click on things like those cute-puppy emails. They search your inbox or your real estate agent’s inbox for any messages related to real estate transactions. Once they find you’re in the process of buying a home, they’ll send a fake message from your agent or attorney, title representative (or other trusted source), alerting you to new money wiring instructions to a fraudulent account. Once your money is wired, it’s likely gone for good.

To read the full article, click on this link:

http://time.com/money/4481906/real-estate-scam/

Read the rest of this entry »

posted by Jeff DeChamplain // Leave A Comment

Market Update | Still a Sellers’ Market

posted on June 23rd, 2016 | filed under: Buying Strategies, Market Update, NoCo SD Market Conditions, Uncategorized

Trends At A Glance - June 2016Still a Sellers’ Market

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes in San Diego County continued rising in May. It has been higher than the year before for the past forty-eight months in a row.

After nineteen months of double-digit gains from mid-2012 to the first quarter of 2014, the gains have “only” been by single-digits.

The rise in prices is due to strong demand and weak supply. Inventory has been lower than the year before every month since August 2014.

Although, after two years of declining home sales, they are up 0.8% year-to-date.

MAY SALES STATISTICS

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

Year-Over-Year

  • Median home prices increased by 6.8% year-over-year to $550,000 from $515,000.
  • The average home sales price rose by 5.1% year-over-year to $707,942 from $673,679.
  • Home sales rose by 6.1% year-over-year to 2,418 from 2,279.
  • Total inventory* fell 4.2% year-over-year to 8,839 from 9,228.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio rose by 0.3% year-over-year to 98.4% from 98.1%.
  • The average days on market fell by 14.2% year-over-year to 36 from 42.

Month-Over-Month

  • Median home prices improved by 0.9% to $550,000 from $545,000.
  • The average home sales price rose by 1.9% to $707,942 from $695,016.
  • Home sales up by 4.9% to 2,418 from 2,306.
  • Total inventory* increased 2.3% to 8,839 from 8,640.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio dropped by 0.0% to 98.4% from 98.4%.
  • The average days on market dropped by 2% to 36 from 37.

Read the rest of this entry »

posted by Jeff DeChamplain // Leave A Comment

Market Update | Mortgage Outlook

posted on May 17th, 2016 | filed under: Buying Strategies, Market Update, NoCo SD Market Conditions, Uncategorized

Trends at a glance - May 2016Economic Data Fosters Rate Fade

Now in the valley between the last and the next Federal Reserve meeting, financial markets must study and react to new inbound data about the economy and inflation. As such, mortgage and other interest rates will be pushed and pulled, fully dependent upon both individual items and the collective tenor of the mass.

Provided the needle doesn’t run very hot for very long (a happenstance we’ve not seen in a good long while) nor show the kind of weakness that could point to deflation or even an economic downturn, interest rates can really only run in a range, at times tending to the bottom of it, and at other times, more toward the top. Middling or mixed data will leave us, well, in the middle somewhere.

With no signal of acceleration, mortgage rates have settled back, edging closer to 2016 lows. To get them off the floor, we will need to see a sustained period of warmer data, which would in turn engender an increasing likelihood of a Fed move in June. At the moment, there’s little to support this, but there is still time before the data comes into focus.

Read the rest of this entry »

posted by Jeff DeChamplain // Leave A Comment

Jeff DeChamplain